Trump’s Strategy Could Upend Uneasy Peace With North Korea
By Kira Webster
Despite tensions between the U.S. and North Korea already seeming high, the Trump administration decided to impose the most strict sanctions they’ve ever placed on North Korea shortly after South Korea welcomed the North to the Pyongyang Olympics last month. While implementing sanctions has been necessary and effective before, it is not the way to ensure safety for neighboring Eastern Asian countries and Americans. Jon Rainwater, the Executive Director for Peace Action and the Peace Action Education Fund, stated that the Trump administration’s decision would only make peaceful relations more unattainable and the need to “pivot towards diplomacy” is needed now more than ever.
We can hope that the President’s meeting with Kim in May will be a gracious, progressive one, but Trump’s track record doesn’t forecast that outcome. What started as petty bantering and name-calling has already escalated to sanctions, which potentially escalates the risk of nuclear war. North Korea’s new development in their artillery has been confirmed to reach the U.S., as well as do immense damage to its surrounding Asian countries. The U.S. also has about 28,000 soldiers stationed in South Korea, who would be called on to fight. Since most of North Korea’s arsenal is hidden, any attempt to preemptively strike would likely fail, and North Korea could decide to retaliate by hitting the U.S., or one of our allies.
What President Trump fails to realize from history is inevitably what he’s doomed to repeat, and it’s what has gotten the U.S. into this position with North Korea. It’s unclear whether he’s aware of the “madman” strategy implemented before him by President Nixon, but it’s apparent that no one in his cabinet has informed him how it didn’t work for Nixon, and the repercussions of it failing for him are far greater than the Vietnam War. Dr. Jeremy Suri from the University of Texas Austin explained how Mao Zedong referred to America as a “paper tiger” during the Cold War, never taking our threats seriously. Nixon concentrated on building bigger and better nuclear weapons solely for diplomatic and military leverage, and was never prepared to actually use them. “Madmen” are never afraid to fail, and never afraid to blow up the world even if it means blowing up themselves. This mentality is meant to scare the adversary into backing down, which will not work for North Korea, since Kim Jong Un (and other major leaders) are well aware that America has too much to lose in starting a nuclear war, and North Korea has nuclear power whereas Vietnam did not.
Suri calls American nuclear power a paradox because an overwhelming amount of America’s artillery is unusable, and a great strike would be devastating. Unlike Nixon, however, Trump doesn’t value allies. The U.S. would become an outcast to the rest of the world, and this outcome could unravel 50 years of global non-proliferation efforts. President Trump wants big victories with little sacrifice, and nuclear threats are the obvious instrument. It also makes no sense for North Koreans to back down to our threats because they already believe without their artillery, their global existence is at stake. Disarming would only make them more vulnerable to U.S. power. They are much more likely to fight back harder than to back away. What’s needed instead is a way to diffuse the current cycle of threats, stop the development of future North Korean missiles, and discussing peace arrangements to promote security and stability on the Korean peninsula. Ideally, this kind of diplomatic negotiating should be between Trump and Kim’s closest officials, as well as both of their closest allies. This ensures trust and accountability between the two countries. The U.S. actually has the power to pursue diplomacy, deter, defend, and contain North Korean nuclear threats, and give Kim what he wants – a guarantee of his country’s survival and acceptance of North Korean sovereignty as an independent state (with help from our allies South Korea, China, and Japan).
Peace Action is currently lobbying Congress and mobilizing activists to show support for diplomacy (http://org.salsalabs.com/o/161/p/dia/action4/common/public/?action_KEY=22577&okay=true). It is not necessarily a petition for a treaty, but a national declaration of peace and opposition to war from the U.S. It also notes that this would be an essential step towards ending the suffering the North Korean people have endured since the end of the Korean War, and denial of any basic human right. A proclamation from the people themselves rather than Congress may not have any effect on the Kim regime, but it’s certainly worth a try when a path to nuclear war becomes more possible.
