by Jason Sibert
In her article “China and East Asia in the Global Nuclear Order”, published in The Diplomat (1/8/24) author Mercy Kuo addressed the issue of nuclear weapons in the current international order.
The two largest nuclear arsenals in the world, the United States and the Russian Federation, are rapidly and deliberately dismantling the global nuclear security architecture that allowed for a draw-down of nuclear weapons in the late Cold War and post-Cold War world. The U.S. withdrew from the Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the Open Skies Treaty. In contrast, the Russian Federation withdrew from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty and suspended the implementation of NEW START.
The new Cold War has brought more change than just the cancellation of treaties. Countries are exploiting the regulatory vacuum and are reshaping their nuclear and conventional forces. The US is in the middle of a $1 trillion nuclear modernization, and the Russian Federation is experimenting with new dual-use capable weapons and delivery systems.
The nuclear order is changing from a bipolar into a tripolar or maybe multipolar world. China’s military ascendancy is viewed in the US with great concern due to its instability and unpredictability. Growing regional instabilities in Europe over Ukraine, in the Korean Peninsula, in the Persian Gulf, and around the Taiwan Strait will bear unforeseen repercussions on the global nuclear order. These three vulnerabilities to the global order are connected in complex ways and are challenging to disentangle. As Kuo states: “China’s advancements in space and artificial intelligence enhance its nuclear capabilities through improved delivery systems, advanced surveillance and reconnaissance infrastructure, and robust defensive technologies. These technologies will act as important enabling systems for China’s nuclear forces along many dimensions. Yet, while critically important, these technologies can also be extraordinarily destabilizing.”
China is interested in cooperating with the United States to regulate artificial intelligence in the nuclear domain. Kuo suggests the US should take up this opportunity and work earnestly with China to achieve a verifiable agreement on the safe use of AI in military applications. She doesn’t feel that a space agreement is reachable because China relies on space as a position of strength.
The strategy of deterrence – preventing war by threatening your geopolitical adversary through the possible use of some weapon or group of weapons – has been used for a long time. Still, the arrival of nuclear weapons during World War II made things more complicated because of their destructive nature and the possibility of error. As stated by Kuo, deterrence didn’t deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine, but it (the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance) kept Russia away from other European targets. Deterrence, in its nuclear form, does little good in the Israel/Gaza war; a nuclear strike by Israel on Gaza would only harm Israel because Gaza is so close.
In our dangerous world, we must remember the importance of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, a 1960s era treaty that demands signees work to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the world. Despite the geopolitical tensions in the world, only nine countries have nuclear weapons, a salute to various arms control treaties and the NPT. In addition, the US has shown a willingness to bring Russia and China to the table for arms control talks, although the efforts have proven fruitless. Russia continues to experiment with new weapons, and China’s nuclear forces are expanding. In the realm of arms control and disarmament, the U.S. leadership is contested as many countries point to what they perceive to be American hypocrisy and double standards.
