By Jason Sibert
While Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and the actions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are grabbing headlines right now, the danger to world peace caused by a belligerent regime in North Korea should also be a concern.
Some analysts have said that North Korea has already decided to go to war, as stated by writer Jenny Town in her story “Has Conflict on the Korean Peninsula Become Inevitable?” Other analysts reject this notion, but they still see low-level conflict as the next step for the Asian nation.
The Joe Biden Administration made multiple attempts to invite North Korea back into nuclear talks, but the US proposals have gone unanswered. In the meantime, South Korea and the United States have bolstered their cooperation in conventional capabilities and nuclear consultation and planning. The two countries doubled down on deterrence messaging and drills, demonstrating their combined firepower and reminding Pyongyang of the dire consequences of any attack. North Korea’s response has been reciprocal deterrence messaging and drills. This power-for-power dynamic has made it difficult for either side to ease off without backing down or even looking as if it has ceded ground to the other, Town stated.
With both Koreas emphasizing the need to be ready for war, one might think that war is inevitable, but tensions have been present in the Korean Peninsula before. The last frenzy was in 2017 when North Korean advancements in intercontinental ballistic missile technologies were met by threats of “fire and fury” from then-US President Donald Trump. The diplomacy that came next was dashed dramatically, with the failure to secure a first-phase agreement between North Korea and the United States that would kick off a denuclearization process and move the Koreas and the US to a more normal footing. Since then, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has implemented new policies, plans, and laws that demonstrate fundamental changes to his calculus about his nuclear weapons program and his country’s place in an evolving geopolitical landscape.
Town asked several vital questions: “The level of conviction and decisiveness Kim is showing today raises questions about his endgame. What makes the situation different from 2017 or other historical moments when tensions flared? Does it make ‘fire’ more or less likely shortly? More importantly, instead of just hunkering down for the fight, what can be done on the diplomatic side to prevent it?” An attempt to make a deal with North Korea in 2019 didn’t work. In 2021, North Korea embraced the suggestion that a “new Cold War” was emerging. As South Korean/US relations grew deeper, North Korea worked to expand its relations with China and Russia on the other side of the ideological divide. Russia’s willingness to provide military cooperation, technology transfer, and deepening economic cooperation makes it the ultimate partner for Pyongyang and currently its top foreign policy priority.
To make headway with North Korea, we must have a strategy. Right now, North Korea’s behavior makes it a commercially restricted nation. It’s currently engaging in cybercrime and cryptocurrency schemes. Town made suggestions on how to move forward, such as moving the US special representative for North Korea back to a full-time position to strategize about new approaches, liaise with the policy community, coordinate interagency efforts, and be proactive in creating diplomatic openings with the North. We also might lift the restrictions on US citizens’ travel to North Korea, clear out obstacles to informal and humanitarian engagement, such as those outlined in the Enhancing North Korea Humanitarian Assistance Act, and refrain from reactive South Korean-US joint military exercises and overly aggressive demonstrations of power. The US could modernize US messaging about extended deterrence to avoid excessive and expletive language. Other than completely cutting off North Korea’s revenue streams, there is value in restoring some of the commercial activities, such as textile or seafood exports, that provide inherent social benefit to the North Korean people through jobs.
Such an approach would provide Kim with pathways and incentives to return to more normal trade activity. The move also could help build cooperation with China and perhaps Russia, meeting them halfway on their previous attempts to broker sanctions relief for North Korea for humanitarian purposes. Finding common ground with Beijing could be a first step in developing a more coordinated strategy toward North Korea, enabling more productive choices for all parties involved.
Rebuilding diplomacy with North Korea is necessary to reduce the risks of nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula and to help curb the arms race gripping the world right now. In time, would it be possible to remove North Korea from the China/Russia orbit and perhaps work toward a unification of the two Koreas?
