{"id":4365,"date":"2016-01-21T14:30:23","date_gmt":"2016-01-21T20:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/peaceeconomyproject.org\/wordpress\/?p=4365"},"modified":"2016-01-21T14:30:23","modified_gmt":"2016-01-21T20:30:23","slug":"the-battle-winners-in-president-obamas-last-defense-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peaceeconomyproject.org\/wordpress\/the-battle-winners-in-president-obamas-last-defense-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"The Battle Winners In President Obama’s Last Defense Budget"},"content":{"rendered":"

JAN 21, 2016<\/p>\n

Whether or not Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter teases the fiscal year 2017 (FY17) defense budget before its official release on February 9th, the broad parameters and priorities are already clear.<\/p>\n

The forthcoming defense budget \u2014 the last of this administration \u2014 will formally unveil the \u201cThird Offset\u201d strategy and its associated investments. This strategy is intended to regain U.S. military technological superiority and compensate for an inadequately-sized U.S. military. As part of this shift in priorities, there will be budget winners and losers.<\/p>\n

While Congress and the Pentagon are aligned on the necessity of new investments, the executive and legislative branches remain at odds over the minimum amount of defense spending in FY17. This is because Congressional Republicans and the Obama administration interpret the recent government spending deal differently.<\/p>\n

President Obama is set to submit a $610 billion budget that is $10 to 15 billion short of what Republicans interpret as the minimum levels for defense in 2017 set by the budget deal \u2014 $625 billion. Republicans will seek to not only see that deficit made whole, but possibly add another $10 billion in supplemental war funding<\/a>. Pentagon officials have already ruled out further cuts in force structure, leaving a fight between modernization and increased readiness.<\/p>\n

Still, the Pentagon could be forced to cut $10 billion in modernization whether or not congressional Republicans succeed in achieving higher spending levels. In last year\u2019s budget, the president requested $573 billion in base spending for FY17. In this year\u2019s budget, Republicans will seek to meet that target by designating a portion of supplemental funding as \u201cbase-to-OCO\u201d funding, which would remove the normal restrictions on buying weapons or investing in research with emergency money. The usage of supplemental funding to add armor and more powerful cannons to Army Stryker vehicles last year certainly sets a precedent, but Democrats remain staunchly opposed to loosening restrictions on any supplemental funding at all.<\/p>\n

In some places, Congress and the Pentagon agree<\/a> on the nature of the investments needed, such as the nuclear triad, special forces and cyber. But because the administration is trying to lowball defense spending and shift priorities within the budget, Capitol Hill is set to push back on a third offset strategy they see as zero-sum in its implementation \u2014 much like President Obama\u2019s Pacific \u201cpivot.\u201d<\/p>\n

Third offset winners in the 2017 defense budget<\/strong><\/p>\n

Over the long term, the third offset strategy accepts near-term risk by betting on technological breakthroughs instead of investing in increased readiness or a larger military. Here are some of the major investments expected to benefit from the extra $12 to $15 billion in defense spending that Secretary Carter has sought re-program over the five-year budget.<\/p>\n

Nuclear triad<\/strong>: A major budget priority in 2017 and beyond will remain the nuclear triad: the Long-Range Strike Bomber, Long-Range Standoff Weapon cruise missile, Ohio Replacement Program submarines, and the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent intercontinental ballistic missile\u2014all of which will be protected in the 2017 budget. A key question is whether the Air Force seeks to accelerate funding for the bomber program, which suffered significant cutbacks in the 2016 appropriations bill as a result of schedule delays initiated by the contract award protest.<\/p>\n

Artificial intelligence<\/strong>: Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work has centered<\/a>\u00a0the offset strategy around artificial intelligence: learning machines, human-machine collaboration and combat teaming, and autonomous weapons. Experimentation and wargaming, a central tenet of the third offset strategy,\u00a0will also receive annual multi-billion dollar funding boosts throughout the five-year budget plan.<\/p>\n

In practice, this could accelerate funding for the Army\u2019s MQ-1C Grey Eagle surveillance drone and the software and personnel development to allow for manned-unmanned teaming with AH-64 Apache helicopters. Also expect new soldier systems in the Army\u2014including better ballistic protection, integrated communications, lighter loads\u2014and new capabilities such as unmanned ground vehicles for cargo and autonomous aerial vehicles for expeditionary re-supply.<\/p>\n

For the Air Force, it likely means investments in advanced automated processing algorithms and next-generation sensors for its RQ-4 Global Hawk drones.<\/p>\n

For the Navy, the focus will be on establishing an operational surface and subsurface drone fleet and investing in improved combat networks.<\/p>\n

Next-generation programs<\/strong>: Lastly, the 2017 budget will preference<\/a>\u00a0developmental programs at the expense of maintaining or upgrading significant amounts of old equipment. Accelerations could be targeted for the following programs:<\/p>\n