World Trouble Spots: The Middle East

By Charles Kindleberger, Board Member

This article was originally published in the 2013 edition of the Peace Economy News. Our 2016 edition will be released later this summer. To receive a free copy in the mail, please sign up through this form.

There is some good news around the world. The global poverty rate has been cut in half during the past 20 years. The World Bank reports that 20 “fragile and conflict affected states” have met one or more targets under the millennium development goals (MDGs) with another six countries expected to meet targets by 2015. The World Bank measures progress towards reduction of extreme poverty, access to water, gender parity in education, maternal mortality, and finds some reason for hope.

Here at home there are also positive signs: High school graduation rates are up (highest since 2004), health care inflation is lower over the last four years, fewer Americans are dying in Afghanistan (72 during first half of 2013, lowest in five years) and the Swiss government has agreed to allow its banks to release the names of people who have evaded taxes with hidden investment accounts. Yet in much of the world the prospects for peace appear considerably worse than in past years.

Nowhere is this more true than in the Middle East.  Here is a quick overview (halfway through 2013) of selected countries in the middle-east. Caution, things are dangerous and changing quickly.

Syria

The civil war over the last 27 months has resulted in an estimated 100,000 deaths, 1,700,000 refugees and intolerable living conditions for those left behind. As of June, the tide of battle seems to have turned back towards Bashsar al-Assad’s regime. Secretary of State John Kerry convinced Russia to co-sponsor an international conference in Geneva; however, both the Syrian rebel leaders and Assad have not been convinced to attend.

There are so many parts in play: Russia’s declaration it would send anti-ship cruise missiles, A-300 Air Defense weapon systems and MIGs on behalf  of Assad; Russia’s removal of forces from its naval base in Tartus,  Hezbollah’s involvement (see Lebanon); the ideological mix of the opposition from Sunni moderates to Jabhat al-Nustra (aka the Al Nustra Front) and other jihadists; the EU’s vote to allow provision of weapons to the opposition in August; Israel’s threat to destroy the A-300 system if delivered to Syria, Iran, Iraq, the Kurds and more. Underlying it all are tensions ranging from uneasiness to hatred between Shiites and their Alawite offshoot, in addition to in between some Christians behind Assad and Sunni Muslims. Recently, England, France and the United States have said they will ship weapons to the rebels.

Egypt

A year after Mohammed Morsi’s inauguration, following Egypt’s first ever democratic election, the President has been forced out of office. In early July, crowds in the millions protested. Some ransacked the Islamic Brotherhood’s offices, and the Supreme Council of the Army threatened to “announce and enforce a new road map” even as they claimed they did not seek a military coup.

Morsi was challenged on many fronts. The Supreme Court dissolved the lower house of Parliament a year ago, and recently challenged the legitimacy of the upper house (the Shura Council). The upper house drafted the controversial constitution back in December and more recently had been considering legislation to force 3000 judges from office, by lowering the mandatory retirement age.

In addition to the judges, the police and the Interior Minister were said to be very dissatisfied. More generally, citizens are upset with the lack of reliable electricity, the price of wheat, the lack of tourism and above all the absence of jobs. Egypt has been the second highest non NATO recipient of US aid (recently $1.3 billion in military aid and $250 million in economic assistance annually) after Israel, reflecting our interests in an open Suez Canal, peace with Israel and Egypt’s powerful place in both the Arab and African world. On Wednesday, July 3, the Army removed President Morsi in what many are calling a second revolution after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak two years ago.

Iran

A country of 78 million, with a large middle class, Iran and the United States have been on-again, off-again adversaries since the CIA helped overthrow the democratically elected prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953.  In recent years the tension has intensified after Iran reportedly purchased nuclear technology from Pakistan’s AQ Khan in the late 1980s. Iran claims that its only interest is in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Yet there seems to be consensus that it has created around 210 pounds of enriched 20 percent grade uranium that could be converted into one or more nuclear weapons with relative ease. In March, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization stated that it was purchasing another 3000 advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges.

The UN Security Council has passed numerous resolutions imposing economic sanctions in the absence of serious negotiations. The P5 plus 1 nations (US, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany) want Iran to invite the International Atomic Energy Association to inspect their facilities, and to demonstrate that there is no nuclear weapons program or hidden enrichment site.  The sanctions are said to have badly hurt the country’s economy; yet the intermittent meetings have yielded little agreement.

There are plenty of other complicating factors: Iran’s missile testing; Holocaust denial and related anti-Semitic remarks by ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; and a new set of computer virus attacks targeted at American oil, electronic and gas companies. Of course, it is widely believed that the US and Israel initiated computer based sabotage (Olympic Games) in the past with the Stuxnet computer virus that damaged Iranian centrifuges. On the positive side, President elect Hassan Rohani, winner with more than 50 percent in June elections, appears level headed, and in contrast with his predecessor, less inclined to intervene in other countries. Remaining to be seen is his ability to get along with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iranian Guardian Council, which can declare any law to be in violation of the constitution and/or Islamic law.

Israel

This traditional, if frustrating ally, has been the focus this spring of intense shuttle diplomacy on the part of Secretary of State Kerry as he strives to restart negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authorities. The issues are familiar. Palestinians want their land, freedom and economic growth. They are concerned about continued Israeli settlements on the west bank and in east Jerusalem, about settler violence and about Palestinian prisoners. Israel is concerned about security, especially from Gaza, which fired 1000 rockets into Israel last November (many destroyed with their “Iron Dome” anti-missile system), but also from Hezbollah in Lebanon (with its rockets from Iran) and from Syria near the Golan Heights.

In late spring there have been signs of progress: The Quartet (United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations) have committed to raising $4 billion to invest in the West Bank and Gaza. Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has agreed to lead this consortium; the Arab League has reaffirmed its previous peace initiative endorsing land swaps; a group of 300 influential Palestinian and Israeli executives called “Breaking the Impass” has met more than 20 times over the past year. Still, in early July after five visits in recent months by Secretary Kerry, there was no agreement between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Mahmud Abbas to even come to the same table.

Others:

Bahrain

This Persian Gulf island adjacent to Saudi Arabia has an on-again, off-again history of human rights violations.  The home of the US Forces Naval Central Command and the Fifth Fleet, Bahrain has experienced increasing tension between the King’s Sunni minority (30 percent) and the Shia (70 percent) majority. King Hamid Bin Isa Al-khaifa instituted a constitution that grants “freedom of opinion and expression;” however, Shia protesters have discovered that it isn’t always in effect. Half of the 1.2 million people are non-nationals from places like India and Sri Lanka.

Iraq

The tragedy of Iraq continues, mostly removed from American headlines. There is not killing on the scale of Syria, but it is constant. Every day or two there is a car bomb here or a suicide bomber there; reportedly the number of deaths this year, mostly Sunni versus Shia, is on the order of 2000. The evening news at home tells us of the ongoing American suffering from the war, especially on the part of veterans with brain injuries, PTSD and missing limbs. However, we are rarely reminded of the 40 percent unemployment, the 25 percent in severe poverty and the hatred that consumes Iraq.

Jordan

This country of 6 million (including 2 million Palestinians) is surrounded by Israel, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Despite a lack of natural resources and high unemployment, it has remained relatively calm in contrast with other countries that have experienced the “Arab Spring.”  Jordan received as many as 1 million Iraqi during that recent war, many of whom have stayed. It has up to 2 million legal and illegal foreign workers, and in the last several years some 500,000 Syrians have arrived, more than one half under 18. The largest refugee camp is Zaatari (120,000 people in five square miles of tents) but two thirds of the recent arrivals are in the cities. The stress on the country is enormous.

Lebanon

After years of civil strife (1975 – 1990, 2006-2008), Lebanon had been relatively calm until recently. Now the Syrian war runs the risk of again tearing the country apart. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has committed the Hezbollah community in the south to defending Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. In late May, Hezbollah bodies were being returned from the front around Qusayr, the border town not far from their homes in the Bekaa Valley. Towards the end of May, at least 28 were killed and 250 wounded as Sunni and Alawite residents clashed in Tripoli in the northern part of the country. In early July, Valerie Amos, the UN Under-secretary for Humanitarian Affairs, reported that 500,000 Syrian refugees had arrived in Lebanon and that very little international aid had been received.

Qatar

This small peninsula on the Persian Gulf is, on a per capita basis, the richest country in the world. An absolute monarchy run by the Al Thani family, it has been the home to the US Central Command Forward Headquarters, and the Combined Air Operations Center. It has also been shipping arms to the Syrian rebels since 2011, and in the process has become a matter of concern to Saudi Arabia and the west. Qatar actively supports the Muslim Brotherhood and radical Islamists; some of the weapons shipped are reported to be surface to air missiles.

Saudi Arabia

The Saudis have a history of providing weapons to those fighting Soviet backed forces in Afghanistan, Angola and Nicaragua.  They have argued with the Brotherhood over many topics – the Arab Peace Plan for Israel, Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the legitimacy of Hamas. Given their proximity to Iran, the US has been happy to sell them lots of armaments, around $30 billion in F-15 aircraft and this spring, along with Israel and the United Arab Emirates, another $10 billion worth of planes and missiles. Recently the US has persuaded the Saudis to take charge of Arab arms shipments to Syria – what kind and to whom – in the hope of keeping them out of the hands of Islamists.

Turkey

With Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan acting like the mayor of a city (by choosing development projects and engaging in micromanagement – which shops stay or go? what kind of lighting on a bridge?), protests have come to Turkey. Most of the protesters have been students and middle class citizens who worry that Erdogan is too Islamist and too authoritarian. They worry about the arrests of generals and journalists.  Most seem to believe that Turkey needs to be resolutely secular. Turkey has been swamped with Syrian refugees, and there are now reports that it has closed its borders to more. With encouragement from the United States, it has seemingly repaired relations this spring with Israel.

Yemen

Familiar to Americans because of the USS Cole, the “underwear bomber,” the 90 Yemini who are still held in Guantanamo and Anwar Al-Awlaki, one of three American citizens killed by drone, Yemen is in transition once again. Since March a national dialogue conference has attempted to define a new federal government that would allot substantial powers to the provinces. This initiative is possible because former president Ali Adbullah Saleh was forced out last year after 30 years in power. The country’s future is unclear, in part because of antipathy between the north and south (they were separate countries until unification in 1990 which then led to a civil war in 1994 won by the north). Another reality is al-Qaeda which has fought the central government since 2001 and continues to assassinate local government officials in rural areas.

Summary

We at the Peace Economy Project are, like so many others, horrified by the killings in Syria and the resulting refugee explosion. At the same time we are extremely apprehensive at the prospect of events turning out of control. We worry that President Obama has been pressured to provide arms to the rebels who could turn out to be more difficult than Assad. In reality there is little militarily that the United States can do without “boots on the ground.” Now is the time for diplomacy and humanitarian aid, not fueling more turmoil and war.