United States to Exit Open Skies Treaty
By Jason Sibert
President Donald Trump announced that our county will withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty this week.
The idea behind the treaty started in the administration of President Dwight Eisenhower and came to life in a real treaty in 1992 in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. The treaty includes 35 nations and allows each member to monitor weapons development in other countries by flying unarmed flights over all treaty-signing nations. It eases the tensions that could exist between geopolitical friends and foes because each country knows what treaty partners are developing
Trump said we are pulling out of the treaty due to Russia’s violations, and arms control officials have found multiple Russian violations. Administration officials said the pullout would take six months and Trump said we could stay in if Russia modifies its behavior.
The president’s decision casts doubt on the extension of the New Start Treaty which expires in February of 2021. One point of light is Trump’s invitation to China and Russia to join an arms control treaty. However, China said they had no interest in such a deal because they have fewer nuclear arms than Russia or the United States, as China possesses 300 nuclear weapons.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies like Ukraine have encouraged the United States to stay in the treaty. Some experts warn that if the U.S. withdraws from the treaty than Russia would withdraw and that would end overflights by the U.S. and other allies. This would give Russia a free hand in developing new arms and cause a power-balancing act where all sides spend more on arms. Darryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association said that the withdraw was “premature and irresponsible.”
Trump’s withdraw fits a pattern. The administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the Paris Climate Accords. On the JCPOA, a treaty with Iran to restrict the country’s nuclear arsenal, Trump said he would negotiate a more restrictive deal. Nothing of this sort occurred and tensions with Iran have increased and some are talking about open conflict. Tom Countryman, of the ACA, said that including China in an arms control deal is not realistic at this time.
The president has created an environment of international chaos since taking office in 2017. His anti-arms control stance could set off a power-balancing act where the U.S. and its geopolitical competitors spend lots of money on arms, an expensive and dangerous way to secure our county!
Jason Sibert is the Executive Director of the Peace Economy Project in St. Louis.
