Hope Is Not a Strategy: The Urgent Need for De-Escalation in South Asia
After a terrifying day of missile exchanges and drone strikes between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, a sudden and unexpected ceasefire agreement has brought a temporary halt to the worst fighting the region has seen in decades. The agreement, which took effect at 5 p.m. New Delhi time on May 9, came after intense international concern about the potential for the conflict to spiral into a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
U.S. President Donald Trump was the first to announce the ceasefire in a post on social media, stating that it came after a night of U.S.-led mediation. The Indian and Pakistani governments quickly confirmed the ceasefire but diverged in their accounts of how it came to be.
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri downplayed American involvement, asserting that the agreement was negotiated directly between the two countries, contradicting Trump’s claim. Meanwhile, a Pakistani government source familiar with the talks told CNN that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio played a crucial role, praising his all-night diplomatic outreach to both sides.
Rubio has also stated that India and Pakistan agreed to begin talks on broader issues at a neutral site. However, India’s government responded cautiously, saying no such decision has been made, and Pakistan has yet to confirm plans for extended dialogue. The Directors General of Military Operations for both countries are scheduled to speak again on Monday, suggesting that further confidence-building steps may still be under consideration.
These conflicting accounts highlight the deep-seated mistrust between the two nations. India, which sees itself as an emerging global power, has long rejected international mediation. In contrast, Pakistan has historically been more open to third-party involvement. Now that the fighting has paused, both countries are likely seeking to shape public perception around how the ceasefire was secured and what it means for their national interests.
A Narrow Escape from the Brink
The ceasefire came just hours after India reportedly struck several Pakistani military bases, to which Pakistan retaliated with its own missile strikes. These events followed the heinous April 22 terrorist attack near Pahalgam and India’s May 6 retaliatory strikes into Pakistani territory. Tensions had been rapidly escalating, amplified by India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and inflammatory rhetoric from Pakistani officials hinting at potential nuclear use.
In a chilling statement on Geo News, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared that “if such dangers arise… a nuclear war can break out.” With approximately 170 nuclear warheads each, both countries have the capacity to inflict unspeakable devastation, not just upon each other but upon the world. A 2019 study in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimated that a nuclear war between the two nations could kill tens of millions, destroy infrastructure, displace entire populations, and inject soot into the atmosphere that could significantly affect global climate.
Ceasefire Is Not Peace
While the ceasefire is welcome news, it does not resolve the underlying tensions. It is a fragile pause, not a peace agreement. Without a sustained commitment to de-escalation and dialogue, this truce could unravel with a single provocation.
This crisis underscores the urgent need for a new security architecture in South Asia—one that prioritizes diplomacy, transparency, and nuclear restraint over nationalist bravado and arms racing. Since their nuclear tests in 1998, both India and Pakistan have ramped up their nuclear delivery systems and missile capabilities, further destabilizing the region.
Now is the time for senior U.S. and Chinese officials, working with global institutions like the United Nations Security Council, to facilitate longer-term agreements on arms control, nuclear risk reduction, and open lines of military and political communication.
A Call for Global Action
The current crisis is a wake-up call. The notion that nuclear deterrence ensures stability has once again proven dangerously false. Only proactive diplomacy, regional cooperation, and global disarmament efforts can ensure lasting peace.
The Peace Economy Project urges the Trump administration and other world leaders to capitalize on this pause to push for a broader peace framework, including renewed commitments to nuclear non-proliferation and de-escalation protocols.
The world has narrowly avoided disaster. Let this moment be not only a reprieve, but a turning point.
