Controlling Iran’s Nuclear Arsenal
by Jason Sibert
International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi recently warned of a wave of nuclear proliferation if Iran builds a nuclear weapon.
“Many countries have said that if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, they will do the same,” Grossi said on the sidelines of an IAEA conference in Vienna in a report. “I think we have heard it very clearly from many countries. We have to avoid an aggravation of the erosion of the non-proliferation regime. This is very important, and I think my Iranian counterparts know it. I think adding nuclear weapons to the cauldron of the Middle East is a very bad idea.”
Grossi called for cooperation with Iran to try to prevent the rogue state from going nuclear. He also called on Iran to show greater transparency on its nuclear program and noted that Saudi Arabia had indicated it would react accordingly to an Iranian nuclear weapon. While official Iranian policy does not provide for acquiring nuclear weapons, several representatives have recently raised concerns with comments on a possible change to this doctrine and on Iran’s capabilities concerning building a nuclear weapon.
Grossi noted that Iran is enriching uranium to near-weapons level. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have worked to draft a resolution that would react to Tehran’s failure to cooperate with IAEA inspectors and be presented to the IAEA board of governors this week. Iran has denied access to experienced inspectors and is not providing information on formerly secret nuclear plants where traces of nuclear material were found.
A lack of arms control has led to a less stable world in recent years. Many of the key arms control deals between the United States and Russia, which reduced the number of nuclear arms on both sides, have become casualties of the current Cold War. Iran is wrapped up in this Cold War, as it has placed itself in the Russia/China orbit.
In our increasingly chaotic world, the current problems in Iran provide lessons for the US regarding diplomatic strategy: Have a firm vision of international law and stick with that vision if it works. Former President Barack Obama’s State Department pushed through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a treaty to control Iran’s nuclear arsenal that included the United Kingdom, China, France, Russia, and Germany. Yes, even China and Russia, Iran’s partners in the current Cold War, don’t think the Islamic theocracy should have a nuclear weapon.
Former President Donald Trump left the JCPOA, which US intelligence agencies said was working, and Iran immediately started trying to enrich uranium. Our country should learn a lesson from Trump’s arms-control mistake – when our country has established an arms-control deal that works, we should stay the course. In other words, when norms are established and defined by international law, diplomacy, and periods of peace, we need to follow them as long as they achieve their desired goals. The JCPOA went by the wayside during Donald Trump’s presidency. What will happen after this year’s election? I guess we’ll see.
