A Fractured Global Nuclear Order: Why It’s Time to Rethink Security
For decades, the world has teetered on the edge of nuclear catastrophe, relying on fragile deterrence and outdated doctrines to keep humanity safe. But the 2025 report by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) sends a chilling message: the global nuclear order is irreversibly disrupted—and the risk of nuclear weapons use is now higher than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The report, authored by Patricia Jaworek, Mark Melamed, Lynn Rusten, and Steve Andreasen with a foreword by Ernest J. Moniz and Joan Rohlfing, outlines the ways in which escalating geopolitical tensions, technological acceleration, and weakening arms control agreements have converged to create an unstable and dangerous reality.
What’s Fueling the Nuclear Breakdown?
- Nuclear saber-rattling by Russia during the Ukraine war has shattered long-standing norms and emboldened those who see nuclear weapons as legitimate tools of statecraft.
- China’s rapid and opaque nuclear expansion, alongside the U.S. and Russia’s own modernization programs, points toward a new arms race—now with at least three major players.
- Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, and cyber tools are making nuclear systems more vulnerable, compressing decision time, and increasing the risk of miscalculation.
- Erosion of treaties—from the collapse of the INF and Open Skies Treaties to the possible expiration of New START—means nuclear arsenals may soon go unchecked.
The Need for Bold, New Thinking
The NTI report argues persuasively that the old system of nuclear deterrence is dangerously out of sync with today’s multipolar, tech-driven world. Relying on a strategy that presumes rational actors and perfect information is a high-stakes gamble humanity cannot afford.
Instead, the authors call for:
- Reaffirming the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought
- Urgent diplomacy and dialogue between nuclear-armed and non-nuclear states alike
- Concrete disarmament steps, including no-first-use commitments and efforts to extend arms control frameworks
- Public engagement and narrative change to make nuclear policy more transparent and accountable
What It Means for Peace Advocates
At Peace Economy Project, we see this report as a call to action. It confirms what peace activists have long argued: nuclear weapons are not tools of peace or strength. They are liabilities—destabilizing, immoral, and incompatible with a just and sustainable global future.
We must continue to push for:
- Divestment from nuclear weapons and the industries that build them
- Reinvestment in diplomacy, climate action, and community well-being
- A global security model rooted in cooperation, equity, and humanity—not fear
The future isn’t yet written. But if we are to write one where nuclear weapons play no part, we need bold leadership, persistent advocacy, and an unwavering belief in peace.
