No Turning Back on Iran’s Nukes
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency recently spoke of concerns about Iran’s advancing nuclear program and called for diplomacy with Tehran.
During the January World Economic Forum in Davos, IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Iran is “restricting cooperation in a very unprecedented way” and is punishing the agency for actions taken by the United States and European countries. He said it is “unacceptable” for the IAEA to be held “hostage” to Iran’s “political disputes with others.”
There is no doubt that Iran is a negative player on the world stage, as it supports terrorism against Israel, bandwagons with the Chinese and Russians, and – like all Islamic theocracies – promotes none of the values that Western civilization holds dear. However, controlling Iran’s nuclear arsenal is more important than making moral judgments on its form of government, considering the volatile nature of international relations.
Grossi emphasized that diplomacy is necessary “to prevent the situation deteriorating to a degree where it would be impossible to retrieve it.” He also said that Iran’s nuclear program is “galloping ahead” and that the agency’s visibility into the country’s activities must meet the challenge. Grossi said Iran’s activities would be legitimate if Tehran abided by the rules, but he also noted that Tehran is not providing “the whole range of information” and clarifications about its required activities.
The IAEA reported in December that Iran increased its production of uranium enriched to 60%, which is near weapons-grade. As of late December, production returned to the same levels as in the first half of 2023 before Tehran reduced its 60% enrichment by about two-thirds in June 2023.
Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, suggested that the IAEA should not expect additional transparency or for Tehran to cooperate with the agency’s years-long investigation into past nuclear activities until sanctions are lifted. Eslami made those comments during a September meeting with Grossi. While the prospects for revived diplomacy between the United States and Iran appear unlikely, as tensions escalate in the region and US forces clash with Iranian-backed militias, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said the environment for talks “still exists” if negotiations occur “within the framework of our redlines.”
However, it is unclear what framework would be acceptable to both sides. The Biden administration no longer views restoration of the 2015 nuclear deal as a viable option. Iran has been more vocal about diminishing prospects for a revived Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In December, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that the 2015 nuclear deal is becoming “useless.” De-escalatory actions to lower tensions appeared feasible in both Washington and Tehran when indirect talks occurred in 2023. Unfortunately, Iran has increased the production of uranium by 60%.
We can see how leaving the JCPOA in the administration of President Donald Trump was a mistake. It must be added that President Joe Biden didn’t make much of an attempt to revive the deal before the Israel/Hamas war broke out.
The ending doesn’t look like a happy one. Can we learn from our history? Hopefully, we can find a way out of this mess and build a stronger and less armed Middle East when it’s over. We can’t continue with the status quo. The weapons of mass destruction we now possess make the status quo unworkable.
