Communication in a Disorderly World
by Jason Sibert
Key arms control deals between the US and Russia are a victim of the geopolitical competition between the United States and Russia/China orbit.
The Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty are all gone. However, there’s one method of arms control monitoring still alive. Since 1988, the State Department’s Nuclear Risk Reduction Center (renamed the National and Nuclear Risk Reduction Center in 2021) maintained a direct line to the Russian Armed Forces, as stated by writer Mathias Hammer in his story “Inside the Little-Known U.S. Arms Control Center in Daily Contact with Russia.” Hammer spoke of the NNRRC’s role in his story: “Established after a string of near-misses that nearly led to an all-out nuclear conflict during the Cold War, the NNRRC became the central nervous system for US arms control efforts, receiving thousands of notifications every year about weapons movements, warhead numbers, and military exercises from Russia and other partners. Today, the center takes in messages from over 50 countries in service of a range of treaties covering nuclear, conventional weapons, chemical, and cyber issues.”
The NNRRC’s two backup facilities and its lines to Russia go along both satellite and undersea cables to ensure that the system stays up and running no matter what. A handful of case officers staff the center, sending regular messages to their Russian counterparts. On a series of large monitors, messages arrive in a mix of Russian and uneven English every two hours. During the golden age of arms control, the U.S. and Soviet Russia were able to cooperate on a set of treaties that contributed to an 85 percent reduction in the nuclear stockpiles of both superpowers. This cooperation continued after the collapse of Soviet Russia.
From an arms control standpoint, we live in a scary time. Few parts of the US government are in as regular contact with Moscow as the NNRRC, and communications between the US and Russia have slowed down since Russia invaded Ukraine. The number of dead arms control deals are also an issue, as the US and Russia have stopped sharing information about their military forces. Some arms control advocates are worried about the possibility of a nuclear war. William Alberque, an arms control expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in a report that “A massive reduction in notifications means a massive reduction in the sharing of information that the two sides use to prevent accidental conflict or ruinous arms races and an increase in the risk of potential conflict.”
Former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller calls the Russian government’s willingness to keep the NNRRC a small step in the right direction. Traditional diplomatic efforts are needed to make real progress on arms control, with the NNRRC being merely a monitoring mechanism, said Hammer.
Last summer, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan signaled US willingness to engage in nuclear arms control talks with both Russia and China “without preconditions,” and Washington DC sent a set of informal arms control proposals to Moscow. However, the situation in Ukraine guarantees that there will be no breakthroughs in arms control, said Andrey Baklitsiy, an arms control expert at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research.
In the absence of a major arms control breakthrough, the NNRRC will continue its work maintaining and preserving the emergency line between the US and Russia. Arms control experts said that establishing a similar risk reduction line with Beijing and other nuclear states could be a realistic move towards reducing the world’s growing nuclear risks.
The current Cold War is making the establishment and enforcement of international law hard. The war in Ukraine, the Israel/Hamas war, and the fear that China will invade Taiwan are all issues in the current Cold War. Hopefully, the tensions will die down, and the two orbits can do some serious work on arms control. Is there a map on this journey? The world’s major powers must find one.
