Will There Ever Be an Honest Debate on Defense Spending?

For years, those who watch the defense budget have wondered when it will surpass $1 trillion a year.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), generally considered the most authoritative crystal ball for federal budget projections in Washington, currently predicts the U.S. will either near or surpass $1 trillion in defense spending in 2032, depending on whether you measure spending by budget authority or outlays. Using more realistic assumptions about congressional behavior, we could reach a $1 trillion defense budget five years sooner.

It’s likely that the 2023 defense budget authorized by Congress will be higher than current CBO projections, ending up closer to $900 billion than the $800 billion in 2023, despite CBO’s projections that it will be $828 billion.

Under the Trump administration, and in each of the past five years, defense spending has seen significant annual boosts–5.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, 8.6 percent from 2018 to 2019, 5.5 percent from 2019 to 2020, 3.9 percent from 2020 to 2021, and 1.9 percent from 2021 to 2022.

A bipartisan majority on the Senate Armed Services Committee agreed to increase FY 2023 defense authorization levels to $845 billion, a roughly eight-percent increase from FY 2022.

Is there any end in sight to the orgy of defense spending? Can we start a discussion on how much we really need to spend?