Russia and New Start
By Jason Sibert
Russia seems willing to extend the New Start Treaty which will expire in 2021.
The country shares part of the blame for the death of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, as Russia was in violation of the terms of the treaty. Although President Donald Trump left the treaty because of the violations, some – like former Secretary of State Colin Powell – voiced support for INF and wanted use it as a mechanism to deal with the wayward Russians.
Russia’s self-interest is tied up in their rationale for staying in the treaty. On the other hand, the country seems to have abandoned arms control as a means of security. In addition to its INF violations, Russia has modernized its nuclear arsenal, disregarded the Helsinki document, the Budapest memorandum, and the Conventional Forces agreement in Europe.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s willingness to extend New Start seems contradictory considering the recent actions of the country. However, the country’s economy is not big enough to withstand an arms race with the United States and any of its allies. A loss in an arms race would diminish Russia’s power and reduce strategic stability in Russia’s backyard, as it would seem like less of a regional power.
In addition, the loss of New Start would mean that both the United States and Russia would lose a method of verification when it comes to each other’s nuclear arsenals. The treaty is the last piece of nuclear arms control left from decades of work. The loss of the treaty could produce a more intense arms race than what have existed otherwise, something that neither Russia nor the United States can afford.
Russia’s nuclear policy seems aimed at creating a defensive mechanism that can warm off a possible attack by the U.S. It’s the only way for Russia to remain in the great power game. Why don’t we extend the treaty and let them stay in the great power game?
An extension of the treaty would mean the two powers could cooperate in the establishment of international law. If the treaty works out, then our two countries could hammer out a new form of detente where we cooperate on other forms of arms control and fighting the greenhouse effect and thus increasing our security through fewer arms!
Jason Sibert is the Executive Director of the Peace Economy Project
