Science Fiction is Very Much Alive in the Military
Scarier and Scarier
By Charles Kindleberger
Pity the poor souls in charge of naming projects and acronyms in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Navy Research Lab and about 75 other groups in the Department of Defense, not to mention contracted universities and other consultants. Most of the work is fascinating. Some is promising in that it would allow more to be accomplished with less. A good part is frightening.
Why frightening? Because much of the research accelerates the arms race around the world, and advanced weapons inevitably run the risk of convincing policy leaders that the US can be more assertive, and less humble, in dealing with its allies and adversaries.
Here is a look at some of the latest stuff in the works:
ROBOTICS
Low-Cost UAV Swarming Technology (LOCUST). Remember Michael Creighton and his 2002 book about nanobots called “Prey.” The Navy is on the verge of demonstrating how 20 or 30 synchronized “birds” (drones) can be launched from a “canon.” The goal is to have a swarm that can join together, break apart and conduct missions individually, collaboratively and spontaneously. Recall that in Creighton’s book the Swarm turned on its creators.
Anti-submarine Warfare Continuous Trail Unmanned Vehicle (ACTUV). A robotic ship, “the Sea Hunter,” is supposed to launch this year able to track very quiet diesel-electric submarines. In addition to following submarines, it can avoid vessels, rocks and other problems on the surface. How will we respond if someone sinks it?
Robotic War Balls. A company called GuardBot has developed an amphibious drone that swims over water at about four miles per hour and then can roll up and along a beach with a 30 degree incline at 20 miles per hour. Designed for use by Marines, these devices can carry detection or camera equipment or explosives.
LASERS
The Navy has a prototype 30-kilowatt-class Laser on the USS Ponce, a transport ship in the Persian Gulf. Using light focused from six solid state commercial welding lasers, it can be used on small boats and UAVs. In the next few years more are expected with a range of around a mile. Then in the next decade projections are that laser systems will increase in range (10 miles?) and in the ability to intercept a variety of incoming missiles.
Advanced Test High Energy Asset (ATHENA). Lockheed is actively developing laser weapons. It recently field tested a “multi-fiber laser” destroying a small truck a mile away. Last year it demonstrated the ability to hit and stop small rubber boats about a mile apart.
High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System (HELLADS). This ambitious system is designed to protect aircraft from surface to air missiles. DARPA is reporting to be working on a variation that would be an offensive weapon able to destroy ground targets.
RAILGUNS
An alternative to laser technology, the railgun uses electromagnetic technology to fire rapidly (around 10 rounds a minute) at muzzle velocities twice those of conventional guns. With no propellants or explosives on board, the projectiles are easier to store. There is also a far lower cost in comparison with comparable missiles. Lots of companies have gotten involved:
K2 Energy Solutions has received $81 million from the Navy in order to create a battery system able to power rail guns.
General Atomics has received funding from the Office of Naval Research for the 32 MJ launcher. It also has developed the Blitzer MJ System on its own.
BAE makes a hypervelocity projectile that can be fired from a railgun. They have proposed a “tank killing” railgun for the next version of the Bradley fighting vehicle.
The Navy anticipates deploying railguns in sea trials next year.
PLANES
We have read for a long time that the 2500 F-35s would be the fighter for the next 55 or 60 years. Now comes news of work on its successor – the x plane. Pentagon Acquisition Chief has announced the Aerospace Innovation Initiative, an effort to expand the building of prototype airframes and engines. Many of us have wondered about the problems of the 5th generation F-35; is it really time to get serious about a 6th generation plane. There is much more:
Vulture II program works on the Solar Eagle that would stay in the air for at least five years solar energy.
The Integrated Sensor IS Structure (ISIS) is an effort to create an unmanned high-altitude, solar powered airship that would collect information for a 10 year period.
The VTOL X-Plane. Remember all the problems associated with the V-22 Osprey. Here comes its replacement- faster, capable of very efficient hovering and able to carry 4800 lbs of cargo. Aiming for 2018.
The Aerial Reconfigurable Embedded System (ARES) is a follow on project to DARPA’s Transformer project that would create a flying Humvee. Field tests by Lockheed have been scheduled for 2015.
The SR- 72 is a hypersonic plane being developed by Lockheed Martin and Aerojet Rocketdyne. Designed to accelerate quickly and cruise at Mach 6, this surveillance and reconnaissance plane would replace the SR-71. The plane builds on DARPA’s work. In 2012, it announced that a plane flying at 20 times the speed of sound would occur in 2016.
The military is involved in so much more:
Extreme Accuracy Tasked Ordinance (EXACTO) which looks to build smart, self-guided bullets.
Legged Squad Support System (LS3) in development by Boston Dynamics, a four legged robot that can carry hundreds of pounds of military equipment.
One Shot XG is a DARPA program to improve the accuracy of snipers with a computer driven device that calculates the best aim given wind conditions, weapons alignment, etc.
Z-Man helps soldiers engage in high risk climbing with a synthetic material that replicates the capabilities of geckos and spiders.
Broad Operational Language Translation (BOLT) is a tool that would allow soldiers to communicate with, and understand, citizens speaking in different languages.
What do we make of all this? Can this huge assembly of brilliant innovation make the world safer? We have our doubts. First, we don’t like the idea of making it easier to kill people. Second, controlling all this accelerating technology is going to be difficult. But beyond that, all this Research and Development seems likely to induce China, and to a lesser extent Russia, to strive to build bigger weapons themselves. If any of the major powers achieve a major military advantage, that country may feel they can take more risks, and their counterparts may in turn determine that they have to strike first to protect themselves.
This article originally appeared in our 2015 annual newsletter.
