Peace Prospects for the New Year |

by Charles Kindleberger, PEP Board Member

How to summarize the progress made towards a Peace Economy during 2013? As always there were reasons to be positive and/or discouraged about the events of the past 12 months. Here are some of my thoughts.

Let’s begin with a vision of a ”Peace Economy.” What would it look like? In my mind, the Preamble of the Declaration of Independence is a good place to start

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

For me LIFE implies a broad array of services and opportunities provided to all Americans – a set of effective “safety net, employment and educational” programs designed to help us all to survive and prosper; LIBERTY implies the right to live in a democracy, one that protects individual rights and minimizes government surveillance; and PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS implies the freedom to pursue one’s interests, as long as they don’t unduly interfere with the interests of others.

I think about the goal of a Peace Economy in terms four categories: domestic and international and short term and long term. Ordinary citizens can generally influence the domestic and short term categories more than the international and long term categories, but all four are important. So here is one person’s view as to the past year and the new one.

Domestic/Short Term Progress. In some respects things got better:

The US economy finally started to create jobs – not in the public sector, but about 2,200,000 in the private sector; hardly enough to deal with the long term unemployed, those with limited skills and those that have dropped out of the labor force, but still impressive. Unfortunately, too many were part time rather than full time.

The Affordable Care Act survived some near death experiences; first, a Supreme Court scare, and then the very rocky roll-out of the web site and the sticker shock confronted by those who thought they already had acceptable health insurance policies.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly Food Stamps) appeared to be surviving the most severe cuts proposed by the House of Representatives, though at year’s end the Farm Bill was still in conference committee.

A bi-partisan budget passed that was to be good for several years, and that removed some of the cuts imposed by the Sequester, even if it was more generous to the Pentagon than to the domestic side of the budget.

And yet there were numerous areas where little or no progress was made: immigration reform, gun control, help for the long term unemployed, acceptance of expanded Medicaid by all states, early child care, job training expansion, large scale tax reform, and much more.

Domestic/Long Term Progress. It is harder to see much progress if one takes the longer view.

Fifty years after the start of LBJ’s “War on Poverty” poverty rates remain high; there is disagreement as to the amount of progress that has been made, and even the definition of poverty.

Income inequality is generally regarded as bad as it was in the 1930s or 1890s. The “great divergence” between the top earners and the rest of us has accelerated since the late 70s. A 2013 study found inequality in the USA, after taxes and transfers, to be substantially greater than 22 other developed countries. Another study revealed that since the “recovery” in 2009, the one percent gained 31 percent on average, while the ninety nine percent gained less than one half a percent

Individual mobility is also no longer a source of USA pride. The chances for a child “doing better” than their parents are considerably lower than other developed countries.

The Military, Congress and the President remain reluctant to reduce the Pentagon’s size and scope. As of this writing, the Air Force wants a new fleet of bombers, the Navy wants replacement aircraft carriers and submarines, and almost no congressmen want to close a base or a defense industry within their jurisdiction.

International/Short Term. A lot of people suffered around the world last year due to violent deaths, torture, refugees and poverty.

Perhaps the most promising event in 2013 was the appointment of Pope Francis as leader of the Catholic Church. From the start his emphasis on the world’s poor and downtrodden represented a dramatic shift in outlook on the part of the church. There were so many other impressive figures during the year included Pakistani advocate for young girl education Mala Yousafzai, veteran Russian human rights activist Lyudmila Alexeyeva, the first female attorney general in Guatemala Claudia Paz y Paz, and “Nuns on the Bus” leader Sister Simone Campbell. However, depressing events were the norm.

In the Middle East, the Syrian struggle spilled over into Lebanon and Iraq. Radical and conservative Sunnis began fighting each other, as well the Alawites and Shia that form the basis of the Assad regime. Optimists could take some heart in the negotiations with Iran over nuclear weapons, and the persistent efforts on the part of Secretary of State Kerry to build peace between the Israeli and the Palestinians.

In Northern and Sub-Saharan Africa there was constant strife – Libya, Egypt, Somalia, Kenya, Mali, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Congo and more. Much of the tension involves religion and tribal issues; typically it has also to do with the struggle for power and democracy.

In Asia, the killing was, for the most part, less pronounced, but nationalism and ethnic tensions grew. Afghanistan was the scene of 160 allied troops killed (down from 402 in 2012), and a larger but unknown number of Afghans. Pakistan experienced on-going terrorism, in most large cities, and on-going killings in Waziristan and other tribal areas, both by the Taliban, the army, and by CIA drones. Myanmar (formerly Burma) failed to control conflict between Buddhists and Moslems, despite its newly formed democracy. North Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines all experienced unrest. Tension grew rapidly as China declared large parts of the East China and South China seas to be within their territorial zone, including a large number of mostly uninhabited islands, fishing stocks and potential oil and gas.

International/Long Term. The longer perspective on world conditions wasn’t much better.

Air. Pollution got better in some locations but worse in others. The American Lung Association reports continued long term trends towards healthier air in the USA, even as 40 percent of population lives in counties with unhealthy levels of ozone and particulate pollution. By contrast industrializing China experienced extreme air pollution, enough to prohibit new coal fired energy plants in parts of the country. On occasion some cities reached 50 times the World Health Organization’s recommended levels.

Water. Pollution remains a problem including in St. Louis, where the Metropolitan Sewer District (MSD) is expects to spend 20 billion dollars to reduce sanitary sewer run offs into the Mississippi river. However, the big world problem is water scarcity. A new National Academy of Science study suggests that, if and when, the global temperature rises by an average of 2 degrees Celsius, one fifth of the world population will experience severe water shortages. Already the National Integrated Drought Information System estimates that about one third of the contiguous United States is experiencing modest to extreme drought.

Nuclear Danger. The past year was not a particularly good one for the US Air Force which experienced charges of gambling, cheating and drug use amongst officers in the nuclear force. But these were minor in comparison with the saber rattling by North Korea, now apparently determined to do more testing; or the refusal of Russia to explore further cuts in its and the US inventory of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles; or the tension between Pakistan and India.

Climate Change. Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, the heat in Australia, the Arctic’s melting ice, the shifting “polar vortex” and other erratic weather events may or may not have been directly connected to global warming. What scientists did resolve was that 2013 was in the 10 warmest years since temperature recordings began. The administration made some impressive moves – the Environmental Protection Agency pushed regulations that would prohibit new coal fired plants, and Secretary of State Kerry renewed his call for environmental progress, with the goal of a global treaty to curtail fossil fuels in 2015. Still to be resolved was the administration’s decision on the XL pipeline which would bring tar sands oil from Canada to the gulf coast of the USA.

There were additional reasons for hope: the surge in solar and wind electric generation, the promise of dramatic increases in automobile mileage per gallon, the nine New England and Eastern states that formed the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (they anticipate a 50 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 in comparison with 2005). However, chances are the world is going to get much hotter. The International Energy Agency forecasts increases of 3.6 – 5.3 degrees Celsius, unless we can’t reduce fossil fuel use by 80 or 90 percent by 2060. That will mean rising seas, less drinking water and less land.

Summary. This piece is written before President Obama’s State of Union speech; however there is chatter that a portion of his remarks will be devoted to income inequality in this country and around the world. I hope so, especially in recognition that a recent Pew Research Center survey suggests that two thirds of American adults are “somewhat or very disturbed” by what has been called the return of the Gilded Age. Large majorities of Democrats and Independents, and even 45 percent of Republicans want government to something about inequality in the USA. For me that would mean tax reform that assists the poor, higher minimum wages, more job training, a stronger safety net, and, of course, more jobs.

With regard to international concerns, we need to pursue intensive diplomacy, recognizing that there are many issues beyond our ability to successfully influence. We also need to recommit to educating the Military-Industrial-Congressional complex, clearly explaining that continuing to spend excessive money on more weapons, bases (both at home and worldwide), and personnel harms rather than helps security around the world.

Do you agree with these observations? If so what will you do to help?